Portland Fire · G · 2026 stats, contract & trade value
Add Samuelson to the Trade Machine →In 2026, Samuelson is producing 3.2 pts below what her salary should buy. She's a free agent after this season, so the figure reflects her 2026 salary alone.
wRAPM — her effect on team net scoring per 100 possessions, adjusted for teammates and opponents.
Projected per stat on the fitted league aging curves (scoring fades, rebounding holds, minutes drive late decline) — 4,700 player-seasons, 1997–2025. Ranges are 10th–90th percentile from held-out backtest error. Years marked FA are past her current deal — projection only.
| Season | Team | GP | MPG | PPG | RPG | APG | SPG | BPG | TOV | FG% | 3P% | FT% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018 | LA | 20 | 4.2 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 38.9% | 31.3% | 0.0% |
| 2019 | LA | 3 | 12.0 | 1.0 | 0.7 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 14.3% | 16.7% | 0.0% |
| 2019 | DAL | 4 | 12.0 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.0 | 28.6% | 33.3% | 0.0% |
| 2021 | LA | 11 | 15.8 | 3.8 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.0 | 0.5 | 38.2% | 47.8% | 71.4% |
| 2021 | SEA | 3 | 10.7 | 3.0 | 0.3 | 0.7 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 30.0% | 12.5% | 100.0% |
| 2022 | PHX | 1 | 10.0 | 3.0 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 33.3% | 33.3% | 0.0% |
| 2023 | LA | 34 | 26.1 | 7.7 | 3.0 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 | 0.9 | 46.3% | 42.6% | 94.1% |
| 2024 | WSH | 29 | 24.6 | 8.4 | 2.6 | 2.1 | 0.9 | 0.0 | 0.9 | 40.9% | 39.8% | 92.3% |
| 2025 | MIN | 16 | 14.2 | 3.3 | 1.3 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.7 | 33.3% | 35.3% | 92.9% |
| 2026 | POR | 32 | 16.0 | 4.8 | 1.5 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 | 0.4 | 35.8% | 30.4% | 89.2% |
| Season | Talent | PPG | RPG | APG |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 22 | 4.1 | 1.5 | 0.9 |
| 2028 | 22 | 3.5 | 1.3 | 0.8 |
Future-year talent figures above are projections on the league aging curve (fit from 4,692 player-seasons, 1997–2025), not measurements — they fade in the display because they should.How the projections work →
Her attribute profile scored against each team's current roster deficits — where she'd fill the biggest hole, not just where she'd be fun.
The fair package each team would have to send for Karlie Samuelson, built and graded by the same engine that grades trades. A deal only appears if it’s cap-legal both ways and lands within one letter grade on both sides — the model’s bar for a fair trade. Sorted by which teams most need her; open one in the machine to tweak it.
A starting point, not a prediction — each package is the fewest fair pieces the model can assemble, and a real deal would flex around roster fit and both front offices.
The closest player-seasons in league history (1997–2025) to her current age, per-36 profile, and role — the careers her projection walks alongside.
Durability context: 68% of her 40 nearest comps had no qualified season two years on — projection ranges assume she's still playing.
